Apollo II
Global Photovoltaics Growth Rate

"Nonrenewable resources should be exploited, but at a rate equal to the creation of renewable substitutes."

Scenario: World oil climbs to 65 million barrels/day around the year 2000 and then declines to 40 million barrels/day by the year 2020.
Objective: PV will meet 20% of the oil shortfall by the year 2020
Assumptions
  • Manufacturing capacity in 1995 = sales = 80 MW
  • PV installed worldwide as of the beginning of 1995 = 600 MW
  • World population in 2020 = 8 billion
  • 1 barrel of oil = 5.8×106 BTU
  • Solar generation time = 8 hrs/day

Actual growth over the past several years. The growth rate required to meet these assumptions was met for the first time in 1997.
Calculations
  • Shortfall = 65×106 Bbl - 40×106 Bbl = 25×106 Bbl
  • 25×106 Bbl × 20% × 5.8×106 BTU/Bbl ÷ (3.413 BTU/Watt × 8 hrs/day) = 1,062 GW
Conclusion: Required Growth Rate of Industrial Capacity = 39% per year
#Years YearManufacturing Capacity
GigaWatts		Cumulative Installed
GigaWatts
0 1995 0.08 0.68
1 1996 0.11 0.79
2 1997 0.15 0.95
3 1998 0.21 1.16
4 1999 0.30 1.46
5 2000 0.41 1.87
... continuing in like fashion ...
10 2005 2.14 8.04
................
20 2015 57 205
21 2016 80 285
22 2017 111 396
23 2018 154 550
24 2019 214 764
25 2020 297 1,062
1,062 GW ÷ 8 Billion population = 133 Watts per capita

Home Apollo2 updated 2000 July 27
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